River Decision in Multi-Way Pot

[KManDeuce]

Got a rare chance to play some poker over the weekend. In general, I've lately been making some mistakes on the river in both directions--sometimes checking behind when I should bet and sometimes betting when I shouldn't. This hand made me wonder if I should have gone Costanza and done the opposite.

$6-12 Limit Hold 'Em, wide variety of styles represented in the 9-seated table. On the prior hand, I showed down AK from the Small Blind after 3-betting pre-flop and chopping with another AK with nothing on the flop, and a runner-runner top two. There was some brief murmuring from the other end of the table about me having over-played my hand, so that's my only reason for mentioning it. Otherwise, I had been ridiculously card-dead on the day, so had probably been viewed as quite tight by anyone paying attention.

I'm on the button. Under the gun limps. He's an older guy who rzes very tight, but limps a ton from any position. Next to act limps, similar player to the first. Third to act limps. He'll limp a ton, including medium-big hands and will try to get fancy on later streets a lot. Two people actually found cards they could fold and the player to my right raises. He's a little more aggressive than the rest of the table, but not recklessly so. I have AcAd on the button and 3-bet. Both blinds call (both would call very wide there, I'm fairly sure), as do all the limpers.

Flop is 6-4-3 w/ two spades. It checks around and I bet. The Small Blind check-raises. ONE player folds! I call. Turn is another 4, not a spade. Now it checks around to me and I bet and all five call. River is another 3 (not a spade) and it checks around to me again. So....bet or check?

[curtinsea]

unless hands you beat are going to call on the river (unlikely) there isn't any reason to bet at it (MHO take it FWIW)

[batgirl218]

unless hands you beat are going to call on the river (unlikely) there isn't any reason to bet at it (MHO take it FWIW)

I agree with curt (which I triple checked in my head, cause that almost never happens ) I think this is the classic case of a flooded pot in limit hold em you're $12 bet won't do anything productive. If you're tight and someone calls here you're screwed. However if you check and someone bets BASED on your tight image or is a habitual river bluffer you can call, you should probably call anyways for pot odds. If it is raised to $24 then you can be sure that someone at least has AA beat. It will be sick whatever they show, but you will still be beaten.

[KManDeuce]

However if you check and someone bets ... you should probably call anyways for pot odds.

I don't think I have to worry too much about checking and then someone betting. Being on the button and all. Hehe.

So it seems like you and Curt are both saying to check to close the action? Curt's seems almost like a restatement of the question (betting means I'm thinking I can get called by worse...I'm certainly not bluffing with AA here, certainly not into five other players). So yeah, I'm deciding if I can get called enough to make it worthwhile.

Hands I'm beating that I'm not surprised to see out there and are calling me: Any pair that plays, so 5-5, 7-7+, anything with a single 6 in it (I could see 65 in the blind being the flop check-raising hand pretty easily). And I think at least someone calls me with just an Ace since there are two pair on the board and there is about a million dollars in the pot.

Hands that I'm losing to that maybe just call: Anything with a 3 in it, 7-5, 5-2.

Hands I'm losing to that got fancy and are trying to check-raise: 6-6, 3-3, anything with a 4 (and possibly the 7-5 or 5-2 if they've got big stones).

I guess with five hands out there, the thing I'm struggling with is relatively how often those things are out there. I will say that I did the wrong thing in this particular instance, although I'm not sure how important that is (in other words, I either checked and had the best hand or bet and did not).

[batgirl218]

my bad, I got crossed up with AK previous hand and was thinking you are SB. In that case yes, checking to the close the action I think it the best play.

You can take this advice one way or the other: River bets in limit usually don't scare anyone. Now you can look at the glass half full and say 'oh well someone with Ax might give me an extra $12' or you can look at the galss as half empty and say 'well i'm going to get called by hands that were content to let me get to showdown cheap and beat me anyways'

Looking at pokerstove with that board against five random hands: AA is only about a 49% favorite on the river.

On the 2nd running of Pokerstove I put your Aces against some ranges that I think would match the personalities you mentioned:

UTG: All pairs, anything suited, any boradway cards...I took out a 'tight raising range' AA-JJ, any AK and AQs.
UTG+1: Same
UTG +2: Same, but I gave him any AK and AQ.
CO: I took out most of the smaller suited connectors, but kept all pairs and suited broadways.
SB/BB: Pretty much the same range as UTG/+1...except I gave them all the aces both offsuit and suited.

Your Aces are only 43.734 to win the pot here. So do with that infor what you will .

[curtinsea]

Curt's seems almost like a restatement of the question (betting means I'm thinking I can get called by worse...I'm certainly not bluffing with AA here, certainly not into five other players). So yeah, I'm deciding if I can get called enough to make it worthwhile.

I don't think hands you beat are going to call you on the river. You 3-bet pre, and if I'm reading this right, you 3-bet again on the flop? I would say your hand is playing face up if your opponents are paying attention.

I guess with five hands out there, the thing I'm struggling with is relatively how often those things are out there. I will say that I did the wrong thing in this particular instance, although I'm not sure how important that is (in other words, I either checked and had the best hand or bet and did not).

Just a note, that isn't how you determine whether you did the wrong thing or not.

[Krabbeltje]

I don't know if my advice is any good here and I can't give any explanation why I would do it but I would probably also check behind...see if you can take what is out there, betting will probably lead to more calls (considering previous action)

[Harsea21]

You need to respect the board in here ... unlikely there is a str out there, but a trip, A4s or A3s or even small connectors which are popular in limit games, like 45s.

I'll probly check.

[KManDeuce]

I don't think hands you beat are going to call you on the river. You 3-bet pre, and if I'm reading this right, you 3-bet again on the flop? I would say your hand is playing face up if your opponents are paying attention.



Just a note, that isn't how you determine whether you did the wrong thing or not.

As to the first part, I 3-bet pre-flop. The flop was checked to me and I bet, the Small Blind check-raised, and all but one person cold-called two bets before I called. So no 3-bet on flop.

Second part, absolutely not, which is why I added that it wasn't important. I only mentioned it because I was wondering if it's why I've been wondering about the hand as much as I have, not whether I did the right thing...just the source of why I'm wondering.

[KManDeuce]

On the 2nd running of Pokerstove I put your Aces against some ranges that I think would match the personalities you mentioned:

UTG: All pairs, anything suited, any boradway cards...I took out a 'tight raising range' AA-JJ, any AK and AQs.
UTG+1: Same
UTG +2: Same, but I gave him any AK and AQ.
CO: I took out most of the smaller suited connectors, but kept all pairs and suited broadways.
SB/BB: Pretty much the same range as UTG/+1...except I gave them all the aces both offsuit and suited.

Your Aces are only 43.734 to win the pot here. So do with that infor what you will .

This is kinda what I was hoping for. One thing, though, is that utg+1 was the one who folded on the flop. I barely mentioned that anyone did, and probably should have said who it was. So that brings it down to six hands (five opponents and me) on the river. I'm also wondering if we can narrow the ranges any based on turn and river both checking through to me. I don't have the stove access here, so I'm curious to see what happens when you eliminate utg+1.

Back to curt's point that nothing we beat is calling: Getting 23+:1 means every pocket pair other than 22 is calling. And I really think a 6 (A6 or K6 in the blind maybe or even worse if suited) calls. If it so happened that I bet and everyone folded to the original raiser on my right, I'm almost sure he calls with a big Ace even with that bloated pot and hopes I have AK or AQ and we're chopping. I'm definitely getting called by lots that I'm ahead of. Question is if there's enough of that out there.

The hand that really has me concerned is the Small Blind. I hadn't said a lot about read on him, but he really could have almost any two cards here, and literally any two suited cards for certain. I know it's awfully specific, but 6-3 suited fits his line perfectly. Ch-rz that flop, thent he 4 counterfeits him and he check-calls, then the 3 makes him worry about a 4 having him beat...OR he's being fancy and hoping to check-raise (although there's parts of that reasoning that are dumb and don't make sense, that doesn't mean that he's not capable of being dumb and not making sense). Hands that beat me have to be pretty big hands on that board (mostly full houses, but even the couple of weird straights). With the pot that big already, I don't see why someone with a 4 wouldn't bet knowing that he's getting called by at least one and maybe multiple hands (like 77+, any 6, etc). Grrrrr. Methinks I may be rambling a bit.