Poker Odds

[BMo]

So same as the next person is trying to get better so am I. I never really got into learning my poker odds with hands pre-flop. This is where I'd like to get some help from other players to see if I can get that help. I only want to better my game. I feel as though I'm a strong, not saying the best, but a strong and solid player. Is there anyone out there that can point me in the right direction? I'm open for any suggestions, teachings, lessons..you name it and I'll take it in.

[WinJStar]

I was always taught multiply your outs times 4 before the turn and times 2 before the river to get an approximate percentage.

Essentially I think that is what Clonie Gowan is saying here:

A Way To Approximate The Odds
Clonie Gowen

It is very difficult to calculate the exact odds of hitting a drawing hand when you're sitting at the poker table. Unless you're a genius with a gift for mathematics like Chris Ferguson, you will not be able to do it. That leaves two options for the rest of us: The first option is to sit at home with a calculator, figure out the odds for every possible combination of draws, and then memorize them. That way, no matter what situation comes up, you always know the odds. But for those of us without a perfect memory, there's an easier way. Here is a simple trick for estimating those odds.

The first thing you need to do is to figure out how many \\"outs\\" you have. An \\"out\\" is any card that gives you a made hand. To do this, simply count the number of cards available that give the hand you are drawing to. For example: suppose you hold Ac 8c and the flop comes Qh 9c 4c. You have a flush draw. There are thirteen clubs in the deck and you are looking at four of them -- the two in your hand, and the two on the board. That leaves nine clubs left in the deck, and two chances to hit one.

The trick to figuring out the approximate percentage chance of hitting the flush is to multiply your outs times the number of chances to hit it. In this case that would be nine outs multiplied by two chances, or eighteen. Then take that number, multiply times two, and add a percentage sign. The approximate percentage of the time you will make the flush is 36%. (The exact percentage is 34.97%.) Now let's say that on that same flop you hold the Jd Th. In this case you would have an open ended straight draw with eight outs to hit the straight (four kings and four eights). Eight outs with two cards to come gives you sixteen outs. Multiply times two and you will hit the straight approximately 32% (31.46% exactly) of the time.

One important thing to keep in mind is that the percentage stated is merely the percentage of the time that you will hit the hand you are drawing to, NOT the percentage of time that you will win the pot. You may hit your hand and still lose. In the first example, the Qc will pair the board and may give some article a full house. In the second example both the Kc and the 8c will put a possible flush on the board, giving you the straight, but not necessarily the winning hand. Still, knowing the approximate likelihood of making your hand is a good beginning step on the road to better poker.

There is a pretty cool poker odds table for beginning odds calculation that can be found here: Poker Odds Table - Luvin Poker Players

[KManDeuce]

I do believe he was asking about "pre-flop," although if that question is being asked then there's a good chance this information may be helpful as well.

[WinJStar]

Yup, u r right. No idea about pre flop I mean there are different hand levels. I'd say if you have pocket Aces, play them

[BMo]

was more so speaking in terms of pre-flop. but that helped a little too winny. a few of those details i didn't know!! you're always lookin' out for me girl

[LeanTo133]

I was always taught multiply your outs times 4 before the turn and times 2 before the river to get an approximate percentage.

Essentially I think that is what Clonie Gowan is saying here:



There is a pretty cool poker odds table for beginning odds calculation that can be found here: Poker Odds Table - Luvin Poker Players

Jen

@ 32% &/or 36% would you raise with these odds and/or @ what odds% do you base a call or a raise? or possible a re-raise?

[trauma]

@ 32% &/or 36% would you raise with these odds and/or @ what odds% do you base a call or a raise? or possible a re-raise?

Everyone plays a little differently as far as calling, raising and or re-raising. IMO your position, and your opponent are just as important as your odds.

For example if I am on the button and have an open ended st8 draw. 4 people in the hand everyone checks to me, with a 32% chance of hitting my card I would prob throw a bet out and try to steal the pot. Even if I get callers I have at least a decent draw. If someone re-raises me I'm prob going to fold.

[BMo]

so say post-flop you figure out your outs and find the percentage of hitting your card, do you add the percentage of the number of players in the hand to that?

[trauma]

so say post-flop you figure out your outs and find the percentage of hitting your card, do you add the percentage of the number of players in the hand to that?

Not really but you then have to take in to account how strong your hand will be if you hit. The more people in the hand the less likely you will be to win if your draw is for a weak hand. ie: your on a st8 draw you have the 7-8hh the flop in 9c 10c and Ad. If there are 4 or 5 people in the hand and you hit the Jc your prob going to be screwed even though you hit. There are a number of hands that are going to beat you even though you hit. The more people in the hand the higher the chance of someone having a better hand.

[trauma]

In other words your odds of hitting stay the same you still only have a set % chances of hitting. Your odds of winning with a weaker hand goes down. IMO I'm not a pro