Why your vote for President in November probably doesn't mean shit.......

[curtinsea]

I think you are spot on Paul, and I also think Rand Paul will be President eventually, and for two terms

[Nynus]

I think I'm one of the few people that watch the Sunday news shows. It's a great way to get the feel for where the campaign's are going, what the "new and improved" talking points are, and what the latest weak points are. If you know what you're listening for, you can also glean a few nuggets about what the long term outlook resembles.

This weekend the most interesting nugget to me was about electoral strategy. For some reason, as the numbers get gloomier for Obama in Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania, I noticed that the Democrats (particularly Wasserman-Schultz) resurrecting the "Western Strategy". I thought that was a dead issue last year. But I guess it's a hope the Dem's have to hang their hat on.

I've calculated 206 electoral votes firmly for the GOP, and 223 firmly for Obama as of right now. 270 is the magic number. If any of those states switch sides, then the swing states would have already decided the race.

That leaves Florida (29), Pennsylvania (20), Ohio (18), Virginia (13), Wisconsin (10), Colorado (9), Nevada (6), and New Hampshire (4) remaining.

I THINK this is the hypothetical that the left is looking at:

Let's say Virginia, New Hampshire and Wisconsin are probably going for Obama (they aren't, but it makes for a good argument) = 250

Florida and Ohio are looking more and more GOP = 253

That leaves Pennsylvania (20), Colorado (9) and Nevada (6) left.

For some reason Ms. Wasserman-Shultz kept talking about Colorado, Nevada, and New Mexico as putting them over the top. Sorry Debbie, New Mexico is already a done deal, and Colorado and Nevada only put you at 265.

I don't see any combination that gives Obama the win without winning at LEAST Ohio or Pennsylvania.

And you have to remember, Obama can't count on Virginia and Wisconsin like I did. Those two states are right now likely to split, and even New Hampshire is still in play.

The ONLY thing that might make sense is if they are counting Missouri (10) or North Carolina (15) on their side. Both of those states are weak GOP, but I think they'd have a better shot at Pennsylvania than one of those.

I think the biggest thing that the Obama camp needs right now is an Bizarro Karl Rove. They need to consolidate some voting blocs and find some areas that they can push over.

Who knows, maybe they've got something in Penn, Missouri, or North Carolina that I'm not seeing. Either way, it's certainly going to be interesting.

[Nynus]

Well, this is what I thought it was looking like about two weeks ago. The map below even gives up CO(9), IA(6), WI(10), and NH(4) for a total of 29 votes that are not even close to being nailed down.



However, today, the news is not good for Obama....

Ohio is starting to trend worse and worse for Obama. Pennsylvania's support for Obama is also waning. Surprising since this has been a slow campaign week for the Republican candidates.

Stay tuned!

[Nynus]

Things are not going good for Obama.



This is the way the Electoral map has shifted in recent months.

Penn has shifted into the Republican category.

New Hampshire, Iowa, Colorado, and most surprisingly Minnesota have moved from Obama into the undecided category.

Virgina and Nevada have shifted from Republican towards undecided.

As it stands right now with 7 states in play, Obama MUST win Ohio or he will not be re-elected. In addition to that, Obama must win a minimum of four other states out of the remaining six. That likelihood at the moment is anorexicly thin.

All the Republicans have to do is win Ohio, or any other two states. (Three if the two are NH + NV or IA

The way things are going with NH, IA, and Colorado, they are just a hairsbreadth away from being Republican states.

It'll be interesting to see what happens with the trends as we get closer to the Conventions and as the Obama Money Machine starts pumping a billion worth of advertising dollars through the boob tube.

Stay tuned, it's gonna be a fun contest.