Odds for the Republican Nomination

**Nynus** · 06-14-2011, 05:52 PM

Odds of Getting the Republican Nomination to run for President

Geoff and I started this discussion in another thread, and I thought it might deserve it’s own thread.

Pitch in opinions here about chances to win the Republican nod.

Name = Odds/1
Mitt Romney = 3.15
Tim Pawlenty = 6.6
Rick Perry = 6.6
Jon Huntsman = 10
Michele Bachmann = 12.5
Sarah Palin = 15.5
Herman Cain = 20
Rudy Giuliani = 36
Ron Paul = 38
Chris Christie = 60^*
Newt Gingrich = 75
Rick Santorum = 90
Donald Trump = 110^*
Mike Huckabee = 150^*

^* = Supposedly NOT running

I think Perry’s gone from about 30 to 1 three weeks ago to 6.6 to 1. Bachmann has also jumped up in the last two weeks.
Huntsman is way overpriced. I’ve got him at 30 to 1 at best. I think Santorum is way underpriced. He should be about 15 to 1 right now. Especially if he can ditch his vanilla/accountant image.

**billynomates** · 06-14-2011, 08:51 PM

On Paul's advice I bet Santorum and pressed him again @90/1. How can he be a bigger price than Palin and Cain who I believe have no chance. Romney is way too short with so many 'ifs and buts' about him, Pawlenty ticks a lot of good boxes but no charisma-and Obama has plenty of that so would be a white flag if they picked him. I just hope Christie enters, he's got to weigh up whether he thinks Obama can be beaten. If 'No' he'll wait because he'll still be young enough in 2016 by which time even the most hardened Dems will be voting Republican(well there'll still be a few blaming everyone and everything apart from Barry)

**billynomates** · 06-20-2011, 06:05 AM

Romney down to 2.96 can anyone give me a good reason not to lay him? To me he's favourite by elimination and will drift as soon as battle hots up.

**Nynus** · 06-20-2011, 06:52 AM

Grrrrrrrr.......

That's right on the edge of what I would lay.

The shitty part is, if Perry decides not to run, I don't see anyone else getting the nomination right now. The flip side, as soon as Perry announces, Romney's going to jump back to 5/1. Insider's say Perry is 50/50 right now. After listening to his speech in New Orleans, he certainly sounds like a candidate. I personally think he'll run, but I thought Daniels was going to run too.

I think I'd lay a bit, and be ready to bump it if you can get down for the same price after Perry announces. If Perry doesn't announce, then you aren't out much.

**billynomates** · 06-20-2011, 07:50 AM

Exactly- good advice. Even without Perry he's not going to shorten dramatically..Perry shortening all time.

**Nynus** · 06-20-2011, 08:29 AM

Updated odds

Name = Odds/1
Mitt Romney = 2.96 v
Tim Pawlenty = 8.4 ^
Rick Perry = 6 v
Jon Huntsman = 8.8 v
Michele Bachmann = 12 v
Sarah Palin = 21 ^
Herman Cain = 34 ^
Rudy Giuliani = 50 ^
Ron Paul = 40 ^
Chris Christie = 60*
Newt Gingrich = 60 v
Rick Santorum = 90
Donald Trump = 130*
Mike Huckabee = 150*

^* = Supposedly NOT running

Big move from Pawlenty from 6.6/1 to 8.4/1 I guess the wishy washy Obamneycare did the opposite of impress.

Perry is gaining ground as he moves closer to a possible announcement and receives more press

Huntsman is about to announce, but his odds confuse me. The only thing I can think of is that he has international interest because of his ambassadorship. The interest in him in the U.S. is not that high.

Bachmann is holding pretty steady. She's starting some attacks on Romney. We'll wait and see if this has a positive effect, however, I don't think this will hurt her.

Palin's number is coming more in line with reality as she's been scarce on the news this week. I wonder if the bus broke down?

Cain's numbers are also starting to reflect his true chances. Expect to see him do something flashy in the next week to get some press time.

Giuliani has been making noise like he might run, but his numbers are going in the wrong direction for that.

Ron Paul continues you lose favor, however, he's going to be much like Palin in that he'll swing a large support behind one of the candidates at some point.

Stay tuned.

**billynomates** · 06-21-2011, 01:55 PM

Yr right Huntsman a definite runner. They commented that not that well known in America. As you know I get most info from The Economist and they been banging his drum for a long time. Thought Obama only made him ambassador to China cos he was scared off him. Say he has a wealth of experience having served under 4 Presidents and will appeal to moderates but reckon he may not get enough support in primaries.Not moved in market, actually Romney shortened slightly, I still can't work out why- going to get my fingers burnt if he's successful.