The unemployment rate is stuck at 10 percent. If calculations include Americans who aren't in the labor force because they stopped looking for work or were forced to take part-time jobs, the unemployment rate has been above 17 percent since September. The Obama administration promised that the incredibly costly stimulus package would keep unemployment down to 8.1 percent, but the result of so much spending has been more job losses - and Americans are angry.
Mr. Obama used the State of the Union to push a second stimulus package. But with massive deficits mounting and stimulus cash going to everything from unknown ZIP codes to $1.57 million to search for fossils in Argentina, it's painfully obvious that a second stimulus would simply throw more money down the drain. Contrary to Mr. Obama's bizarre assertion that all economists support his orgiastic spending, basic economic data suggest the stimulus actually increased unemployment and delayed recovery.
The president claimed the first stimulus package already "created or saved" more than half of the 3.5 million jobs it was vowed to rescue. But it's hard to see where those jobs are when examining the numbers in the Department of Labor's household survey, which is used to measure the official unemployment rate. The number of people with a job fell by 589,000 in December. On top of that job loss, the number of people no longer in the labor force grew by an astounding 843,000 from November to December.
Since February, when the stimulus package was passed, the number of people not in the labor force has grown by 3.2 million. The number for December represents 26 percent of the entire increase. This is important because these millions of people are not included in the official unemployment rate. The crisis of unemployed Americans getting discouraged and giving up looking for work is ballooning. Of course, they have good reasons to be discouraged. Since February, the total number of jobs has fallen by 4 million.
The simplest way to measure whether Mr. Obama's policies have helped the labor market is to look at the change in the number of people unemployed and the change in those who have left the labor force. Obama economic mismanagement has created a disaster, with those losing their jobs and those no longer looking going up in a virtually straight line last year. (See the chart below.) In the opposite scenario, during a period of economic expansion when the number of unemployed would fall and more people would enter the labor force, there would be a downward sloping line. But as this figure indicates, any slower increase in the number of new people being unemployed is completely offset by the increasing speed that people are completely leaving the labor force.
The growth in the U.S. unemployment rate continues to outpace the rest of the world. Since February, the average unemployment rate for the European Union has grown by 1.2 percentage points. By contrast, the U.S. unemployment rate has grown by 1.9 percentage points - a 58 percent greater increase. Nor does the rate look particularly strong compared with what economists were predicting at the beginning of last year. Back in mid-January 2009, business economists and forecasters surveyed by the Wall Street Journal expected the December unemployment rate to be at 8.6 percent.
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