Why not push when you've got an advantage?

[Nynus]

Because if you're playing in a tournament, you'll lose.

In a tournament if you push and lose, you're done. In ring games if you push and lose, you can buy back in provided you have the bankroll. In tournament situations, the winning players don't keep pushing their chips in the middle with a 60%/40% advantage.

Why?

Because in the long run they'll bust out.

Here's a good way to see it......

When you get all your money in with a 60/40 advantage here's what the statistical average looks like graphically.

10 samples:

Win, lose, lose, win, win, win, lose, lose, win, win.

So you have a 40% chance of getting busted out, and a 60% chance of moving on. Or 6 out of 10 winners.

Okay, so let's look at what happens next time.....

You get all your money in the pot again with a 70/30 favorite.

Eliminate the 4 times you got busted out from above and your wins/loses look like this:

Win, win, lose, lose, win, win

Okay, you survived 4 times and lost 2 times.

Next monster hand and you push again but this time it's a coin flip.

You lost 2 times above so your only looking at 4 shots.

Win, lose, win, lose.

Your down to 2 shots now. and even a 70/30 chance of winning might take you out.

I know this seems complicated, but if you look at pushing as a 60/40 favorite 4 times and risking elimination, you WILL be eliminated 87% of the time in one of those four 60/40 shots.

Here's what it looks like tightened up with the numbers:

win, lose, win, lose, win, lose, win, lose, win, win. (6 wins, 4 loses)
win, lose, win, lose, win, lose. (3.6 wins, 2.4 loses)
win, lose, win. (2.2 wins, .8 loses)
win, lose. (1.3 wins, .7 loses)


87% of the time when you push 4 times with a 60%/40% advantage you will get knocked out of the tourney.



Let's take a look at the coin flips shall we?

Your classic AK vs. Pocket Pair match-up

it's a 50%/50% shot roughly so lets do the same thing.

W L W L W L W L W L (5 wins, 5 loses)
W L W L W (2.5 wins, 2.5 loses)
W L (1.2 wins, 1.2 loses)

So essentially getting stupid with the races means that you have an 87% chance of getting knocked out in only 3 attempts at pushing with a coin flip.

The bottom line is, aggressive works in the right places, but you're also putting your dick on the chopping block if you decide to do it too often.

The more you push, the better chance you have of getting sucked out on in the long run. In a ring game this isn't a big deal. You can play those 60/40's all day long and as long as you have the bankroll to survive the fluctuations, then you'll make money in the long run.

In tournaments, where survival is the goal, pushing with an edge might not be the way to make money.

[Ezzz]

Nice post!!

[Harsea21]

Very interesting Paul!

Does that mean you need to play less agressive in tourney? Or pick your hand more carefully?

[Ezzz]

Thats a good question harsea. Its kind of like if u start laying down winning hands cause your worried of the suckout your doomed. Then your second guessing everything u do. But pauls made some good points in this post. I do notice when i sit back and out of the action I tend to go farther. Then when i develop a big stack and i keep getting in the mix something bad happens. If that makes any sense. lol

[StevieJS]

What Ez said

[Fetique]

Great post. Very thought provoking. Thanks.

[Nynus]

I actually wasn't putting this forth as a way to sculpt your game. It was more of a different perspective to looking at playing NL. In playing live NL, and some tourney's here in Vegas I've been noticing a growing trend of 'all in' idiots that can't figure out why they keep coming up in the loser column. They play a decent game, but they treat their ring games like tournaments and only look at the cards in front of them.

These guys will play a ring stack like a tourney stack, and then play a tourney stack like a ring stack.

They'll push really small edges and risk their tournament existence because 'they've got the best of it' when they have 88 vs. AK. Then when they play a ring game, they throw away an AJ vs. TT because they're looking at real chips, real money, and risking a overly large portion of their bankroll.

So what ends up happening. The weak-passive NL player in ring gets the living shit torn out of him by the guys that are willing to put their money in there, and then they play overly aggressive and try and push people out of the hand with wild moves and small edges when they don't have the chance to buy back in.

What's the correct strategy for tourneys? Whatever works for you. But one thing that won't work is pushing with every pocket pair because you know you've got a slight edge over any AK.

Playing a short stack or a big stack are a different story. With a short stack you have to take risks and you have to get it in there and jump on the chances you get. When you're the big stack, you can safely bludgeon because you aren't risking elimination.

Also remember that a call that puts you all in, is much different than a bet that pushes all your chips in the middle. When you're calling with all your chips, you're opponent isn't going to fold. However, when you're the one pushing, you've got a good chance of winning the pot with a fold.

Always remember the gap concept: You need better cards to call with than to bet with.

[StevieJS]

Hey Paul, what are your consultancy rates ??

Everything you say makes a lot of sense... I am a kind of conservative player, and find in ring games I get the shit kicked out of me by bold players who continually raise before the flop and there after.
I find it hard to call with hands like 9, 7 suited or say K J, off-suited before the flop. even holding lower pairs I tend to fold alot.
I then find I get angry and make some dumb ass call in frustration, and lose again
Having said all of that, if I am dealt decent pairs (10, 10 and up) I will be reasonably bold, and will not be frightened to raise if I think I have the winning hand.

Any tips or suggestions on playing these "bullies" would be appreciated)

Thanks,
Stevie

[Niccivan]

Stevie, in ring games you cant be scared to put your money in. You will ultimately loose it if you play that way. You gotta be willing to risk some to make some. You can't just bet on the nuts every time.

Also you gotta remember, that if someone raises and you have a few callers, you gotta figure alot of them are holding higher cards, and if you are holding 2 mid cards - like 8 9 suited, or a mid to low pair, you probably have 2 live cards or a pair that no one else is holding. Your chances of winning could be very good at this point.

Point being, in RING games, you should play more aggressive and be more willing to put your money in. I first played scares when i played rings, scared of losing my money. But i've also learned that you never put more than 10% of your bankroll down at a table at once, unless you are down to that last 50 bucks and are going for the gusto lol. WHen i started playing my hands and pushing back is when i learned I could make more money. of course i could loose more too.

paul is right, tourney play is so much different. you get knocked out you are done. I play alot tighter and less aggressive until the time is right. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't. My thing is timing. I usually pick the wrong times to make a move.

[sierradoc]

if you are going to get your money in the middle 1st then @ least consider if you have any real fold equity. if you do have real FE then i like the move sometimes even if it ends up in a coin-flip that loses and costs you your tourney.

other times the shove is just silly. sometimes you lament the missed shove opportunity. here is an illustration from the LA Poker Classic this past Feb:

i was the bubble boy in the $500 + 40 event. 670 played and i finished 46th. only the strangely steep pay-out kept me from the money but i keep chewing over one hand.

if memory serves i had ~6K and the blinds were definitely 300-600 with 50 antes. i had been on a mini heater by becoming involved. i re-stole when on the BB once with naked cards and then re-raised A-I with 5/5 from the SB next hand. i sensed weakness from the original raiser so i shoved and got called with Q/J off; needed the set of 5's i flopped as the turn and river came Q then J.

after these two hands i got 7/7 in MP a few hands later and the pot had been raised so i re-raised and again took down the pot. few more hands and i have 4/4 and make a 3X BB raise and all fold! folks were clearly getting agitated about my level of activity. had been folding, playing ABC poker, and now was in every other hand for a circuit and a half.

two to my right was an Ipod-ed Asian who could clearly play and was stereotypical aggro. he is now SB and i have T/T UTG. i limp and several people openly note this. all fold to the Asian. he makes it 2400 to go. i have a bit more than 11K i think.

i feel if i pushed i would be auto-called and in a race. our stacks were very close as i asked for a count. i folded the T/T as i only had 600 in the pot but since i ended up the bubble boy i am, of course, revisiting this play. Asian guy showed Slick BTW. he said he was calling any raise and i know he was telling the truth.

i had played for 6+ hours now and didn't want to erase a pretty good run on a race. what i'm wondering is should i have simply called? i watched Richard Lee make this play several times as i would have assumed position in this hand. if the flop comes low i can shove following the certain CB Asian Ipod would have made.